Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
